What is the Expected Value (EV) & How is it Calculated?
Expected Value (EV) is a fundamental concept in sports betting that helps bettors understand the potential profitability of their wagers. In simple terms, EV is a calculation that determines how much you can expect to win or lose on average per bet placed. By analyzing the odds offered by sportsbooks and the probabilities of outcomes, bettors can make informed decisions.
How is the EV Calculated & What Does it Mean?When betting on sports , you want to always find a bet that will give you the highest possible chance of winning. Expected value is the measure of how much you might expect to win or lose when taking the same bet many times. Probability affects your chances of winning, and sometimes you might get lucky or unlucky. However, over a long period of time, your profits will always depend on the expected value of the bets you make.
Let’s look at flipping a coin as an example. A coin flip is a 50/50 result, so you would expect the odds to be even. If the odds are higher, we describe this as being positive expected value (+EV), and you’re guaranteed to make a profit in the long term. However, you’ll always expect to make a loss eventually if they’re lower than even and you keep betting. This is known as negative expected value (-EV).
How to Calculate the EV & FormulaCalculating the EV involves a straightforward formula:
EV=(Probability of Winning×Payout)−(Probability of Losing×Amount Bet)
In simple terms, EV quantifies the expected profit or loss from a betting scenario. If the EV is positive, it indicates that the bet is likely to be profitable over time. Conversely, a negative EV suggests that the wager may lead to losses. Understanding these calculations can help bettors navigate the complexities of sports betting more effectively.
What are Positive and Negative Expected Values?Positive expected value is when the result of the EV calculation is a positive number. In other words, the probability of winning multiplied by the potential profits has to be larger than the probability of losing by the total stake. If you place bets at positive expected value, you’re much more likely to end up in profit over time.
On the other hand, negative expected values mean that the probability of losing times the total stake is higher than the probability of winning multiplied by the potential profit. If you’re betting at negative expected value, you’re much more likely to end up at a loss over time.
Professional sports bettors look for the positive expected value when checking the odds and deciding where to bet. Even if they lose from time to time due to bad luck, consistently betting at +EV means they have a better chance of being a profitable bettor.
Advantages of Calculating the EV When Betting on SportsCalculating the EV provides several advantages for sports bettors:
- Informed Decision-Making: Bettors can assess the profitability of their wagers based on statistical analysis rather than intuition.
- Bankroll Management: Understanding EV helps in managing your betting budget effectively, allowing you to make calculated risks.
- Long-Term Success: By consistently placing bets with positive EVs, bettors increase their chances of achieving long-term profitability.
- Strategic Betting: Knowing the EV of different bets can guide bettors in choosing which games or events to focus on.
Jilibee stands out for its user-friendly interface, comprehensive betting options, and exceptional customer service. Our platform provides detailed analytics, including EV calculations, to aid bettors in making informed decisions. Additionally, we offer competitive odds and various promotions to enhance your betting experience. By choosing Jilibee, you gain access to valuable resources that can elevate your sports betting journey.
Betting Tips & StrategyTo maximize your success in sports betting, consider the following tips:
- Research: Analyze team statistics, player performance, and historical data.
- Stay Disciplined: Stick to your betting strategy and avoid emotional decisions.
- Utilize EV Calculations: Always assess the expected value of your bets before placing them.
- Diversify Your Bets: Explore different sports and betting types to spread risk.
At Jilibee, we value our customers and offer exciting promotions and a JILIBEE club for our loyal bettors. Additionally, we prioritize responsible gambling practices. We encourage all bettors to gamble within their means and seek help if needed.